Africa has experienced nine military coups since 2020, according to the Georgetown University Walsh School of Foreign Service. That’s a more frequent pace than the previous five-year period, and certainly a cause for concern on a continent known — fairly or not — for poor governance.
Indeed, these events compound preexisting challenges across Africa. “The [coup-affected] states face a slow post-pandemic recovery exacerbated by climate change shocks,” says Georgetown University’s Alex Vines. “Food insecurity, political instability, stagnating economies, high-interest rates, and weak governance further add to their challenges.”
Despite these formidable obstacles, many longtime Africa observers are optimistic about the continent’s prospects in the medium to long term. These boosters include Christopher Roy Garland, who has spent nearly four decades in southern Africa and facilitated numerous large-scale infrastructure and business development projects during that time.
Garland and his peers see several drivers behind what they believe to be a bright, even transformative future for their home continent.
1. Favorable Demographic Trends
Africa is growing faster, and has the youngest population, of any continent. Its population now exceeds 1.5 billion, up from less than 300 million in the 1960s.
“Africa remains a bastion of rapid population growth,” Garland says. “While this won’t last forever, most experts expect it to continue for a decade or longer, ensuring steady, predictable long-term market growth.”
This trend stands in marked contrast to other parts of the world, where population growth is slowing or even reversing. Africa’s population will eventually peak as well, but this is not even on the planning horizon for all but the longest-term thinkers.
2. Pockets of Stable Governance That Serve As a Model for Other African Nations
Military coups and unstable coalition governments might dominate international headlines about the continent’s politics, but Africa has always had examples of stable, democratic states. Chris Garland’s home country of Botswana is an example, as is Kenya, notwithstanding recent anti-government protests there.
These countries are not perfect. However, they do serve as homegrown models for other African nations. They also provide a welcome alternative to the well-meaning but overbearing expectations of non-African nations, some of them former colonial powers on the continent.
3. Incremental Improvements in Governance Elsewhere
Africa has seen some notable examples of improved governance recently, even amid the more visible signs of instability. In Nigeria, for example, a new government initially caused an uproar when it eliminated fuel subsidies and made other long-delayed reforms, but the furore has since died down and the country appears to be on a more stable and prosperous trajectory than before.
These advances should not be assumed to be permanent; backsliding is always a possibility. Yet outsiders would do well to take a more holistic and balanced view of African politics than the conventional wisdom allows.
4. A Growing Focus on Resilience and Self-Reliance
One of the most exciting drivers of Africa’s momentum has been a continent-wide focus on local self-reliance and resilience. This manifests differently across the continent in forms such as a nascent tech boom in Nigeria, a focus on local ownership of value-added raw materials processing in southern and central Africa, and a boom in locally produced green energy in places like South Africa, where rooftop solar installations have grown by 453% in only two years.
5. Efforts to Diversify and “Up-Value” National and Regional Economies
This focus on resilience and self-reliance flows from and helps support government- and NGO-led efforts to diversify and “up-value” national economies across Africa. The end goal of these projects is to create more robust, developed economies and stronger currencies that can withstand both external and internal shocks. While no country is immune from recession (or worse), this can be seen as an insurance policy against the inherent volatility of a globalized economic system.
6. More Robust International Cooperation
With some important exceptions, African nations are less diplomatically isolated today than at any time since the colonial period. Like economic diversification, more robust political linkages to the rest of the world allow Africa to share in the prosperity that comes with globalization while protecting against its inevitable perils.
Is This Africa’s Moment?
Africa experts like Christopher Roy Garland believe that the continent’s best days are ahead of it. They look forward to a period of economic development, self-reliance, and political stabilization unlike any Africa has seen in memory. The road ahead won’t be smooth, of course, but the direction of travel seems clear. Outsiders now underestimate Africa at their own peril.
Image Courtesy: christopherroygarland
